Hey folks, just read this eye-opening opinion piece by David Wiechnik in the Western Standard, and it's got me worried about our energy sector here in Alberta. Here's a quick breakdown:
The core argument is that a potential US intervention in Venezuela – think regime change to oust Maduro – could spell disaster for Alberta's oil industry. Why? Venezuela's Orinoco Belt has massive reserves of ultra-heavy crude, super similar to our bitumen. Back in the day, when Chávez cut off exports to the US, Alberta stepped in with Western Canadian Select, becoming their go-to supplier. But if Trump-era hawks like Marco Rubio push for control over Venezuelan fields (or just lift sanctions), the US gets a cheaper, closer source of heavy oil without building new pipelines or refineries.
Right now, the US has a huge naval force off Venezuela's coast – an aircraft carrier, warships, 15,000 troops – officially for "counternarcotics," but it's the biggest deployment since '89 and includes airstrikes. If they flood the market with Venezuelan oil, demand for Alberta's stuff tanks, prices drop, investments dry up, and jobs vanish. We're already 97% reliant on US exports through one main pipeline corridor, with no real backups thanks to cancelled projects like Keystone XL and Energy East.
Adding insult, US refiners (like Motiva in Texas) don't want competition from Canadian facilities, and opposition from BC's government and First Nations blocks west-coast access to Asian markets where demand is high.
On a hopeful note, PM Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith are announcing an MOU tomorrow in Calgary for a new pipeline to BC – could be a step toward diversification. But if the US moves on Venezuela, it might be too late. Economics trump ethics here, even if our oil is the "cleanest."
What do you think? Time for Alberta to push harder for export options, or are we screwed if Trump goes full interventionist?
Link to the article: https://www.westernstandard.news/op...-oil-patch-is-one-coup-away-from-crisis/69287
The core argument is that a potential US intervention in Venezuela – think regime change to oust Maduro – could spell disaster for Alberta's oil industry. Why? Venezuela's Orinoco Belt has massive reserves of ultra-heavy crude, super similar to our bitumen. Back in the day, when Chávez cut off exports to the US, Alberta stepped in with Western Canadian Select, becoming their go-to supplier. But if Trump-era hawks like Marco Rubio push for control over Venezuelan fields (or just lift sanctions), the US gets a cheaper, closer source of heavy oil without building new pipelines or refineries.
Right now, the US has a huge naval force off Venezuela's coast – an aircraft carrier, warships, 15,000 troops – officially for "counternarcotics," but it's the biggest deployment since '89 and includes airstrikes. If they flood the market with Venezuelan oil, demand for Alberta's stuff tanks, prices drop, investments dry up, and jobs vanish. We're already 97% reliant on US exports through one main pipeline corridor, with no real backups thanks to cancelled projects like Keystone XL and Energy East.
Adding insult, US refiners (like Motiva in Texas) don't want competition from Canadian facilities, and opposition from BC's government and First Nations blocks west-coast access to Asian markets where demand is high.
On a hopeful note, PM Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith are announcing an MOU tomorrow in Calgary for a new pipeline to BC – could be a step toward diversification. But if the US moves on Venezuela, it might be too late. Economics trump ethics here, even if our oil is the "cleanest."
What do you think? Time for Alberta to push harder for export options, or are we screwed if Trump goes full interventionist?
Link to the article: https://www.westernstandard.news/op...-oil-patch-is-one-coup-away-from-crisis/69287